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In the annals of Oscar history,Emma StonebeatingLily Gladstonefor Best Actress will not go down as aMoonlight-level surprise.
Both women were running neck and neck throughout the season, with Stone winning BAFTA and Gladstone taking SAG.
(As had been apparent since July,Oppenheimerwas the nights big winner.)
What made voters say, Too bad, Gladstone, weve gotta have Stone?
I can think of three possible reasons, none of which are mutually exclusive.
AsKyle Buchanannoted, By going lead, Lily told Hollywood to treat her like a lead.
And she just booked another lead, which many supporting winners struggle to do.
On the whole the film does privilege DiCaprios characters point of view, in a way that rankledsome critics.
Stone did not suffer from a similar issue.
You could see their impact all over this years results.
But I think these international voters also may have swung it toward Stone.
Most of the upsets we saw on Sunday were mirrored at BAFTA, whose membership is similarly global.
And BAFTA snubbedKillersin multiple key categories, including Gladstone in Actress.
The Narrative
I always say that the Oscars are not sports.
Theres no way to look at the stats and say who should have won.
In this case, those clearly tipped it to Gladstone.
Furthemore, Stone had the disadvantage of having won before, and fairly recently.
(She last won forLa La Landin 2017.)
Since Venice, Stones performance inPoor Thingswas heralded as a career-best achievement.
In the end, that turned out to matter more than anything else.
