It’s generally a rare thing for the person you’re interviewing to burst out laughing.
The question that evidently tickled Tedeschi: Was the “vibecession” fake?
The labor marketis still strong, and consumer spending is still solid.
Despite the relatively steady environment, people are feeling a whole lot more enthusiastic.
Corporate executives’expectations soaredfor the fourth quarter, the Business Roundtable’s economic-outlook survey found.
CEO forecasts for hiring, capital investment, and sales improved.
Underneath the top-line number, however, there’s been a significant partisan shift.
Republicans' expectations around the economy improved in December, while Democrats' got worse.
After the embarrassing-for-me chuckle, Tedeschi responded.
“The short answer is no.
The vibecession was not fake.
The long answer is no, but … ,” he said.
Perceptions of the economy have to do with more than the economy itself.
“Perceptions of the economy are definitely deeply partisan,” Tedeschi said.
Feelings are not facts, including when it comes to GDP.
So people are expecting tariffs.
They’re expecting action on immigration," Hsu said.
Democrats are worried that Trump’sthreatened tariffsand promise to undertake mass-deportation effortswill make things pricier.
Independents, Hsu said, are in the middle.
Or they just plan to pass alongany price increases to consumers anyway.
If you think it’s not, the opposite.
It also found that over the decades, the swings had become more pronounced.
“It actually became more extreme,” Sandoval said.
It happened in 2000 when George W. Bush was elected, but also to a relatively benign degree.
The gap was especially pronounced under the first Trump administration, she said.
Throughout these past years of turmoil, consumers have said everything is terrible andspent a bunch of money anyway.
Many people’s bank accounts, especially those in the middle- and upper-income brackets, are fine.
“People are spending as if they are much happier than they are,” Tedeschi said.
Economic sentiment is, of course, an economic indicator, but it’s also a political indicator.
While the vibecession was not fake or some giant mirage, there’s more going on beneath the surface.
If you’re a Republican, you’re feeling real good about February.
If you’re a Democrat, enjoy the last of those good vibes now.
Emily Stewartis a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.
