The US Navy faces critical shipbuilding problems that could hobble it ina war with China.
Yearslong delays and cost overruns are plaguing new construction.
As it stands, China’s yards can simply outbuild the US’s.
Why is so much warship work behind schedule and over budget?
The US shipbuilding industry is a shadow of what it was in the final years of the Cold War.
Higher production rates would require infrastructure costs and a larger workforce.
Repair and maintenance are likewise constrained by the few public yards available.
And the Navy’s next Ford-class carrier, USS Enterprise, faces a delay of 18 to 26 months.
That reduces “the Navy’s buying power” and contributes “to program instability,” Oakley said.
What does that mean in a war?
Many naval experts say the US couldn’t do anything like that today.
Unclassified US Navy data suggests China has 230 times the US capacity.
Much of its strength there comes from its commercial shipbuilding, which shares yards and resources with its military.
Together with other yards, they are delivering on Chinese national defense ambitions while also dominating commercial shipbuilding.
An important debate centers on quality versus quantity.
China has the numbers, but the US still maintains more advanced, combat-proven warships.
But that edge is not guaranteed.
In 2020, the US Office of Naval Intelligence said China’s ships were increasingly comparable to US ships.
Technological advances will likely strain China’s shipyards as they have US yards.
How does the US fix this?
The US Navy’s shipbuilding woes aren’t new, and there simply isn’t a quick fix.
That date does not mean conflict is inevitable; it’s a benchmark.
Autonomous systems are also a priority for the Department of Defense and could shape how the US fights China.
Beijing, too, is working on similar systems.
Larger investments and drastic changes may be needed to build and maintain a force beyond 300 ships.
The US also sees opportunities with allies in the Pacific.
Despite shipyard struggles, the US remains the top naval power for the time being.
