Oscar Futures

Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.

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Gold Rush

Over the course of their never-endingWickedpromo campaign, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande have been positioned as equals.

(Only six minutes!)

Others, we grumble that someone has too much screen time to be considered a supporting role.

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The case of Rossellini can be addressed in a single sentence.

Shes being recognized less for what she does onscreen inConclaveand more for her overall place in film history.

But the others require a deeper dive.

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To start, there are two numbers you gotta know 33 and 40.

This understandable bit of gamesmanship has unintended consequences.

The same goes for movies about same-sex friendships.

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Why did Brad Pitt run in supporting forOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood?

Because his character worked for Leonardo DiCaprios, I was told, meaning he was literally supporting Leo.

Extra-textual matters play a role here, too.

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The movie effectively becomes her story, he writes.

So why isnt she running as a lead?

In that instance, how does a campaign decide who goes where?

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(Not least because hes the one played by the writer-director.)

Running Grande in supporting is not an especially controversial choice!

The pushback against such placement is why Ive stopped saying the supporting races are the lesser categories.

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Grande does a fantastic job creating a three-dimensional comic character out of a sidekick part.

Calling it a supporting performance is not an insult.

If any of this bugs you, Ive got good news.

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Oscars Futures: IsThe Substancefor Real?

But now Im ready to believe.

Up September 5

After a last-minute release-date shuffle, the years most elusive contender opened this Friday.

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Awards-wise, however, that intellectual bent makes for slim margins.

.Current Predix

.

Somewhere out there, Adrien Brody is frantically searching for Dave Portnoys number.

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Can you believe hes never been nominated for an Academy Award?

We always say that Oscar voters love a transformation, and Moores is certainlythe most dramatic in the bunch.

Callas could sing three octaves, but the film is mostly one note, saysAmy Nicholson.

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Jolie isnt getting off easy, either:Michael Schulmanslams the star for giving a boring, risk-free performance.

But the lack of passion for this project could prove her Achilles heel.

Norton, too, is looking secure after earning nods from both precursors.

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As Pete Seeger once sang,to everything there is a season.

A decade afterBirdman, this could be yet another turn, turn, turn for the mercurial actor.

Down Stanley Tucci,Conclave

Ave Maria!

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Unless the papal thriller becomes an unstoppable freight train at the Oscars, it appears this Tooch is cooked.

(Richard Brody, whousuallyhatesOscarmoviesand thoughtParasitewasjust okay, named ithis No.

1 film of the year.)

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