Oscar Futures
Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
Save this article to read it later.
Find this story in your accountsSaved for Latersection.
The first week of December is always a whirlwind on the Oscars front.
On Monday, theGotham Awardslit up Wall Street withplates full of melted cheeseand approximately 73 different tribute awards.
For many, this flurry marks the official arrival ofMoira Roses favorite season.
However, awards season is not just one season.
Vibes Season (mid-October to late November)The first awards movies begin to hit theaters.
Early-year hopefuls attempt to reintroduce themselves.
Titles that skipped the fall festivals rush to screen in time for critics year-end lists.
(My thanks to The AnklersKatey Richfor the title of this one.)
After a holiday break (and the Globes telecast), the various guilds weigh in with their nominations.
This phase climaxes with the Oscar noms, which shift us into …
Phase Two (late January to early March)The only micro-season that has an official name.
(Everything before the noms is Phase One.)
The field is winnowed and campaigning gets much tougher.
The signature event of this phase is the annual Nominee Luncheon, which gives us the iconic class photo.
For a New Yorker, the first week of Tastemaker Season means the circus comes to town.
Much of the chatter at these parties touched on the fundamental issue of Tastemaker Season.
The reason for caution is obvious.
The first time I went to the Gothams, in 2019, the big winner wasMarriage Story.
The next time it wasThe Lost Daughter.
Still, they do have influence, especially on the margins.
The same yearThe Lost Daughterwon Best Feature, the Gothams handed their international-film prize toDrive My Car.
Higher-profile contenders benefit from the spotlight, too.
I had been bullish onSing Sings chances, still I couldnt really argue with anyone who was skeptical.
I saw Supporting Performance winner Clarence Maclin earn the nights biggest standing ovation.
I saw Lead Performance winner Colman Domingo dedicate a characteristically heartfelt acceptance speech to his castmates.
Before, we thoughtSing Singwas a strong contender.
Now, weve felt it.
And a victory at one of these ceremonies can be its own reward, of course.
In all likelihood, this was a one-off event.
But that big win at the Gothams shouldnt meanlessbecause it stands alone.
If anything, it should mean more.
And you know what?
They were probably right!
Theyre going to be fine.
.Current Predix
.
Its no surprise that critics are championing Rosss challenging, formally audacious work.
Considering how auteur-friendly the directors branch has become in recent years, the Academy could follow suit.
(Remember, they namedTop Gun: Maverickthe best film of 2022.)
The safest bet is still Craig, who was the NBRs Best Actor pick.
(Luca Guadagninos film also made their top-10 list, andJohn Waterss, too.)
In a supremely competitive year for Best Actress, the British actress faces an uphill climb.
(Itisa Christmas movie, though you may not want to see it with your family.)
Considering the appeal of his personal story, I have a hard time seeing him miss out.
(It didnt help that the gender-neutral Gothams awarded men in every acting category.)
See Nicole Kidman, youre not the only one who can get a trophy forNew MILF Cinema!
Does this mean nothing?
Does this mean everything?
Were left relying on Mondays Golden Globe nominations to provide more clarity.
