Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
Save this article to read it later.
Find this story in your accountsSaved for Latersection.
First, though, lets lay out the case for RDJ winning.
To start, hes the biggest star in the category by a factor of about a billion.
Particularly when it comes to the Limited Series categories, star power very often matters.
Downey plays Claude, a CIA operative and the Captains handler.
He also plays Niko Damianos, an egotistical filmmaker who wants the Captain to consult on his war film.
Olivia Colman wins an Oscar forThe Favoritein early 2019, followed by an Emmy forThe Crownin 2021.
Regina Kings Oscar forIf Beale Street Could Talkin early 2019 came sandwiched between Emmys forSeven Secondsin 2018 andWatchmenin 2020.
Rami Malek: Emmy forMr.
Robotin 2016, Oscar forBohemian Rhapsodyless than three years later.
Tatiana Maslanys Emmy win in 2016 forOrphan Blackwas considered a huge surprise, but should it have been?
She was basically stunting on her competition by playing a half a dozen clones.
However, the case against Downeys assured victory starts with dismantling a lot of those historical precedents.
The most famous person in a Limited Series category wins … sometimes.
Award wins happen in clusters, except when they dont.
After the career nadir ofDolittle(hes said as much), he rebounded in a big way withOppenheimer.
Throughout that movies awards-season tour earlier this year, Downey kept alluding to this new phase of his career.
Standard talking points when promoting a serious movie?
Without that narrative, it becomes a lot easier to poke holes in Downeys case for an Emmy win.
And it was a case that was ripe for hole-poking to begin with.
Robert Downey Jr. showing up over and over in roles designed to be largely interchangeable contradicts that aim.
The optics got even worse when Downey became the only Emmy nominationThe Sympathizergot.
This just wasnt a show that resonated with Emmy voters.
It wasnt a show that resonated with anyone.
That puts its viewership lower than shows likeWhite House Plumbers,The Time Travelers Wife, andThe Idol.
(Still higher than the second season ofIndustry, though).
If not Downey … who?
That leaves four decently strong contenders to take the trophy.
Theres also the fact that Bailey is inBridgertonand could easily pull votes from that shows partisans within the Academy.
He even sings a song (one he wrote and is nominated for)!
Williams died in June 2023 andFeudis his final show.
The history of posthumous Emmy nominations is a long one, but its hard to glean any coherent trends.
There is no guarantee that voters will feel the need to grant Williams one for the road.
