In such a devastating fight, airpower and airspace control could be decisive.
Without these, the alliance could face a nastier fight should the worst come.
Experts told Business Insider the Ukraine war has underscored how some elements of modern air combat are radically changing.
But Russia’sproblems have extended beyond its weapons.
To do this, aircraft must fly overhead of ground forces or nearby to target enemy positions.
Russia has failed to achieve this kind of coordination orsecure air dominance.
“I think that surprised quite a lot of Western observers,” he said.
The glide bombing has shattered defenses and contributed to Ukraine’s battlefield losses and withdrawals in recent months.
Russia would be a very different opponent.
“And we know how many casualties that are coming out of that fight.”
But that’s not all that Russia brings.
The Russians could attempt a surprising and impactful opening attack, experts said.
And, like Ukraine, the Russians have employed loitering munitions and cheap exploding first-person-view drones.
These threats collectively require layers of air defenses, electronic-warfare options, and more to defeat.
One option could be the interceptor drones Ukraine is developing.
But the strain on air defenses is certain to be high in future fights.
Spreading out
Another lesson of the Ukraine war is that fixed bases are easy-to-find targets.
He said Russia’s invasion showed all frontline NATO states should adopt it.
But the shift wouldn’t be easy for all of NATO.
Dispersal increases the challenge of keeping all these airfields supplied and may spread its talent too thinly.
But experts said the West must invest in its militaries now.
Russia may be deterred if the West appears strong enough.
Valge, the Estonian air-force officer, argued that “Russia understands strength.”
And surface-to-surface missiles aremaking a comeback.
But there are questions of whether it has the arsenal and manufacturing base for an extended war.
But the West can’t afford not to be ready for it.
