Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
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The late-breaking duo ofWickedandA Complete Unknownadded star power to the race.
The Oscars are weirder and more global than ever before, and were all the better for it.
While the various precursors have helped the field come into focus, a few major categories remain in flux.
Heres who I see getting into the eight biggest categories at Thursdays Oscar nominations.
All were nominated for Best Film at the BAFTAs, and all saw their directors recognized by the DGA.
BesidesThe Brutalist, allwere nominated for SAGs ensemble award, andAnoraandA Complete Unknownalso scored with the WGA.
(The other three couldnt get nominated since they werent written by guild members.)
That leaves only one slot.
Audiard is a former Palme dOr winner whose film is catnip for international voters.
Baker is the indie darling made good.
Berger is an arty European who gave an airport novel some panache.
(His record as the youngest-ever Best Actor winner could be broken by Chalamet this year.)
Craig may be vulnerable, since Luca Guadagninos romance baffled as many viewers as it beguiled.
But the top tier has solidified.
Gascon and Madison broke out at Cannes, exciting new faces leading films that should compete for Best Picture.
Erivo carried the falls biggest blockbuster with her multi-hypenate talents: acting, singing, andholding space.
Three women appear to be in contention for the final spot.
Their performances areno lesscritically acclaimed, so this spot will likely come down to the wire.
Instead, precursor voters decided Culkins backing band should be a bunch of second fiddles.
(Though hes arguably drafting off Culkin, his formerSuccessionco-star, just as much.)
(The power of musicals!)
Otherwise, were choosing from a potpourri of fascinating performances.
(Personally, Id slot either of them in over Curtis.)
International voters loveEmilia Perez, which might pull Selena Gomez in alongside Saldana.
In such an unsettled race,The Substances Margaret Qualley could ride in on Demi Moores coattails.
Mike Leighs five previous nominations in this category makeHard Truthsa possible replacement.
IfSeptember 5shows up instead, thats probably a sign its getting the final Best Picture spot.
