Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
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One called 2024 a very weak year for movies.
What everyone could agree on was this was an unusually unsettled Oscar race.
Can you remember a season where theres ever been this much swapping of the No.
one strategist asked me.
Among those I spoke to, there was some disagreement about who exactly these front-runners were.
All thoughtThe Brutalisthad always been potent andAnorawas currently in the lead.
Some believed inConclave Its a satisfying movie for grown-ups while others felt it was perhaps too British.
Theres a lot of misogyny and all that stuff within the Academy, one said.
Theres probably still a lot of people who are quietly not overly comfortable with transgender issues.
Another mentioned a different kind of bias potentially at play: the grudge theatrical stalwarts still hold againstNetflix.
The streamer will need a movie likeOppenheimerin order to win an undeniable jot down of movie.
A wide-open Best Picture race means that anything is possible, one said.
You just have to keep fighting.
You have to just keep pushing.
Whether for this reason or not, all agree that this was a particularly messy year.
There have always been Oscar scandals, another strategist noted.
But the tenor of them, and maybe the frequency of them, felt pretty unprecedented to me.
(That shit pissed me off, a female strategist said of theAnorabacklash.
But the strategists think, or pray, that wasnt the case.
I dont think anybody was playing games, said one.
I really hope this is not what the job is becoming, said another.
I think it was just crazy fans online; thats how the internet is now, said one more.
Oscar strategists generally abide by the rule that Film Twitter is not the Academy.
If you were a passionate fan ofEmilia Perez, its not going to change your opinion, said one.
It wasnt just the scandals that made this such a chaotic year.
The fireswere part of the mess in a weird way, a strategist said.
Because of the new calendar, things that used to be really important arent so important.
Whoever wins at SAG is going to have no effect on who wins the Oscar, they added.
Most strategists agreed the seasons most unexpected development was the rise ofThe Substance.
I was surprised, but Im happy for everyone, one said.
How did a French body-horror satire wind up with five Oscar nominations?
CreditDemi Moore, another said.
Plus, the movie has European sensibilities, and it cant be overstressed the impact of theinternationalvoters right now.
Another strategist was less surprised.
You haveCoralie Fargeatgetting French support.
You have Demi and all her friends this circle of actresses who all support each other.
There was somebody willing to spend money on the campaign.
And the movie spoke to a lot of women, of course.
So there were a lot of potential areas of support for that film.
Do I think this means that every horror movie under the sun is going to get in?
This strategist was more impressed by another of the years horror contenders: Nosferatuwas actually a surprise.
On nomination morning, Robert Eggerss vampire film was recognized in four below-the-line categories.
It means that people are really looking, and looking beyond the traditional Oscar field.
Theyre looking at those specific crafts.
Do the guilds really tell the Oscar story?
The guilds are so American, a strategist argued.
I was looking through the list of who actually votes in the Globes.
It was a lot of the press that you see in Cannes, Venice, or Berlin.
There are some legit smart people in the group.
Still, that doesnt mean that every artsy title in the race had an easy road.
I would get emails from the trades saying, This movie isnt really tracking, they said.
There was this huge disconnect.
It was kind of hard to get people to believe that it was actually a strong contender.
Ultimately, this film got nominated thanks to a small but passionate fan base.
You dont need 10,000 people to put you on their ballot.
You only need a few.
They watch the ones they feel like watching, and then they vote, said one.
That was the hurdle for a film likeSing Sing, two different strategists told me.
Its a really life-affirming movie.
A24 did spend some money on it, but the money they spent was all about Colman Domingo.
These strategists will be the first to admit that they have their own blind spots.
If, as seems likely, this season ends withAnoratriumphant, a few owned up to having underestimated it.
Only when Sean Bakers film won DGA and PGA on the same night did they start to believe.
I was honestly surprised, but it was a pleasant surprise, another said.
One of the things aboutAnorathats so wonderful is that its a feel-good movie.
In a weird way, you feel like theres a little bit of hope for humanity.
Can SAG Give Us a Photo Finish in Best Picture?
(The unlucky one wasLily GladstoneofKillers of the Flower Moon.)
Theres more uncertainty around the nights top award, Best Cast.
Of the five nominees, two feel like their moment has passed.
To my surprise, a lot ofsmart punditsare predictingWicked.
If this happens, Id see it more of aHidden Figureskind of win rather than aCODAkind of win.
On the plus side, it would also make Bowen Yang the firstformer Vulture recapperto win a SAG Award.
Most intriguing would beConclave, currently riding high off its BAFTA Best Picture win.
Suddenly, wed be in for a photo finish betweenConclaveandAnorain the Best Picture race.
Despite losing at BAFTA, Sean Bakers film still leads the field in overall trophy count.
(And even BAFTA didnt go terribly, as Madison got on the board in Best Actress.)
