Its going to be a big night for fine dining, baby reindeer, and feudal Japan.
Keeping pace with Hollywoods perpetual awards horserace.
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Can you even remember what was happening at the beginning of the 202324 TV season?
The strikes were still active, of course.
Jamie Lee Curtis was having a bipolar episode in a cramped kitchen in the Chicago suburbs.
FXs upcoming adaptation of the novelShogunwas assumed to have a definitive endpoint.
The Emmy voters have cast their ballots.
All that remains is for the winners to make their speeches.
No, thats a lie.
Because first we make our predictions as to who will be the ones making those speeches.
.Outstanding Drama Series
.
There is no shortage of enthusiasm for this show across the Academys various branches.
Februarys SAG Awards are of no help, since the industry was still awardingSuccessionback then.
But are we ready to exist in a world whereThe Morning ShowbestsShogunin Outstanding Drama Series?
Could we endure that kind of injustice?
Good for Dominic West for nabbing his first Emmy nomination after having been consistently passed over forThe WireandThe Affair.
But this category will come down to Gary Oldman and Hiroyuki Sanada.
Hes an exquisite slob onSlow Horses, a sharp intelligence agent cosplaying as a wet cigarette of a man.
Sawais performance is undeniable in this category, and it will be embarrassing if she doesnt win.
Jonathan Pryces consolation prize is not having to return to3 Body Problem.
This category is going to come down to the men ofShogunversus the men ofThe Morning Show.
For another, I dont think Mark Duplass is in the same league as his fellow nominated co-stars.
Crudup won this award in 2020, and hes primed to do so again.
Sure, the latter happened after the Emmy voting window closed; I just needed to mention it.
Beharie in particular looks like a superstar in that clip.
That might be enough to pull the votes to her side.
But to me, Greta Lee is the performance to watch here.
This category will be a true toss-up until the moment the winners name is read.
& Mrs. Smith, First Date, Hiro MuraiShogun, Crimson Sky, Frederick E.O.
There isnt, and I wont waste your time or mine pretending there is.
Are Emmy voters going to giveFallouta writing award?
Is the enthusiasm forMr.
Stay in line,Shogunvoters.
But its not like Emmy voters who watchedthe third season ofThe Bearcan pretend they didnt.
The question is, Has a consensus formed around aBearalternative?
Unfortunately, thats probably as far as that show gets.
Edebiri played all these scenes with her signature wit and clear-eyed optimism.
I suppose its hard to justify a career-spanning win for someone whos already a seven-time Emmy winner.
Despite the supporting distinction, Einbinders Ava isHackss co-lead, which amounts to a huge advantage for her.
IfThe BearandHacksend up splitting the vote, theres a chanceShadowscould pull off the shocking upset.
The SwansAndrew Scott,Ripley
This is a fascinating category.
That opens the door for the rest of the field.
With the exception of Jon HammsFargocharacter, these are all performances of queer men.
),Naomi Watts(dying with dignity onscreen!
This isnt advanced math.
Id say Treat Williams, but the Emmys rarely go for posthumous awards.
Nava Mau plays the far more sympathetic character, while Jessica Gunning plays an absolute monster.
But Gunning is so thunderously good at playing that absolute monster.
She could be hard to deny.
Which means dont make a run at get cute and place a bet onGus Van Sant here.
Baby Reindeeris the favorite to win because its the favorite to win in the Limited Series category.
Simpsonhad multiple nominated episodes, which likely split their vote.
Shows likeFellow TravelersandTrue Detectiveare weakest on a script level.
Everything feels set for aTraitorsascendency, which is exactly why Im so nervous about betting againstRuPauls Drag Race.
John Oliver doesnt lose Emmys.
Thats not what we have John Olivers for.
AndSNLhadthat greatJumanjisketchthis year, plus theydressed Ryan Gosling up like Beavis.
Then theres perhaps my secret favorite thing theyve done lately: theNate Bargatze George Washington sketchabout weights and measures.
Thats good enough for a should win.
Mike Birbiglias flail-swimming cant compete with that.
John Earlys archly gorgeous After the Gold Rush performance cant compete with that.
Jimmy KimmelsOppenheimerjokes cant compete with that.
