And China is leaps and bounds ahead.
Humanoid robots prancing across a stage is not itself the future.
“Optimus will be the biggest product of all time by far,” Musk said last month.
“Nothing will even be close.
I think it will be 10 times bigger than the next biggest product ever made.”
In various capacities, humanoids will work alongside, or in place of, humans to allow 24/7 production.
They will be personal butlers and concierges in homes.
They will be waiters in restaurants.
Whatever the eventual shape of humanoids in human society, China is poised to mold it.
In 2024, Chinese companies brought 35 humanoids to market, two-thirds of the global total.
Companies in the US and Canada released a combined total of eight.
Not every robotics researcher and manufacturer I spoke with cast the competition in such dire terms.
Local and national governments have since invested heavily in humanoid development throughout China.
Several other provinces have followed suit in recent months.
It also helps thatChinais the world’s factory.
“China makes more stuff than anyone else.
Their capacity dwarfs that even of the United States,” says Matthews.
That gives China a huge advantage."
For one, the supply advantage makes it easier to build cheaper.
“The Chinese economy has developed quite a lot via industrial robots in the last 30 years.
UBTech is targeting mass production of its humanoids by 2026, according to the South China Morning Post.
Supply chain supremacy also means China’s competitors across the world are heavily reliant on China.
Like the humans they’re designed to serve and replace, humanoids are made up of thousands of parts.
There’s the “brain,” which includes semiconductors, foundational generative AI models, and vision software.
The United States has a clear advantage in the brain game.
The overwhelming majority is spent on the body a range of actuators, pistons, and skeletal parts.
Twenty-one of 64 companies building body parts for humanoids are based in China; 17 are in the US.
All told, about 56% of the world’s humanoid supply chain companies are based in China.
But the state of the race is clear.
For now, the war over robots is China’s to lose.
Chris Stokel-Walkeris a journalist who focuses on the tech sector and its impact on our daily lives.
Alongside his reporting, he teaches journalism at Newcastle University.
He is Michael Tam, not Michael Tan.
